If you thought Tulsa’s economy was cooling off this year, you weren’t imagining it.
At the Tulsa Regional Chamber's State of the Economy event Wednesday, RegionTrack President and economist Mark Snead said there’s been a slowdown throughout 2019, but it’s become more pronounced in the second half of the year. When it comes to wage and job growth, numbers are not nearly as good as last year.
"In fact, for both Tulsa and Oklahoma at the state level, the data is essentially bouncing around 0 at this point, down from some fairly aggressive job growth rates that peaked at about 2%, pulled back in the 1.5% range," Snead said.
Despite that, Snead predicted Tulsa will likely lead the state in job growth in 2020, but take that with a grain of salt.
"It’s not so much Tulsa growing at a faster pace inherently but the fact that the rural regions of the state will probably trail. Both Tulsa and the state are likely to underperform the nation in job growth," Snead said.
Snead saiod he expects a modest recovery when it comes to jobs, with the Tulsa area likely adding around 4,000.
Much of that will depend on how the oil and gas industries, which continue to have a strong influence on Tulsa’s economy, perform in 2020. While Tulsa’s job and wage growth is less volatile than the state’s or Oklahoma City’s, energy accounts for a bigger share of earnings.
Snead said 15–30% of Tulsa-area household income comes from just two sectors: mining and pipelines.
"That’s why Tulsa is still tied at the hip despite the fact that you really don’t have a very volatile or growing wage and salary employment base tied to oil and gas. It’s quite remarkable," Snead said.
For the state, 10–20% of household income comes from oil and gas or related industries, including not just mining and pipelines, but also things like refineries and oilfield equipment.
Snead said while Oklahoma appears to be at the bottom of a decline in oil and gas rigs, production has not dropped off yet, thanks to how the national economy is performing. He also predicted, however, that energy industry layoffs would continue picking up through the first half of 2020 before flattening.
