An economist has offered a new take on how much an oil price slump from mid-2014 through 2016 hurt Oklahoma.
"What we would suggest is that the real net decline in tax revenue is not $1.5 billion, but it’s more like $2.25 billion. Instead of about a 15 percent decline in total revenue, it’s really about a 25 percent decline in revenue," said RegionTrack President Mark Snead.
That net decline is the difference between projected state tax collections before the crash and actual collections during it. Snead used that calculation for several economic figures, including the state's gross domestic product.
"In terms of GDP, it’s not a $22 billion decline, or about a 11 percent decline in GDP. What it is relative to our forecast is about a $52 billion decline in GDP in late 2016, or about a 22 percent loss," Snead said.
Snead said oil prices bottoming out below $30 a barrel also cost the state around $31 billion in household earnings rather than an estimated $15 billion and as many as 70,000 jobs rather than 26,000.
Snead said the post-recession oil price slump is a once-in-a-lifetime set of circumstances to see just how much oil affects Oklahoma’s economy and state coffers.
