AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The U.S. is on the brink of another major war in the Middle East. President Trump says he's considering striking Iran for reasons that the White House and the Pentagon haven't made clear. Mick Mulroy served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East during President Trump's first term, and he joins us now. Welcome.
MICK MULROY: Thank you, Ayesha. Good to be with you.
RASCOE: So the U.S. has been sending firepower to the region for over a month now, AND Thursday, President Trump said it would be, quote, "over the next probably 10 days" where we would see whether there would be a deal or not. What do you think is most likely to happen?
MULROY: Well, I would like to see diplomacy rule the day and that there's an agreement that can be reached that would be acceptable to both sides. But it doesn't look like that's where this is heading. And I think the White House has planned for that. Right now, we have about the same amount of air power there that we did at the beginning of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. So I think this has been all in preparation for not only strikes against Iran, but a - potentially a sustained campaign. I do think there's still an opportunity, but it's going in the wrong direction right now.
RASCOE: Well, if the U.S. does strike, what's the goal? Like, Trump has said it would pressure Tehran into giving up its nuclear program, but he's also talked about regime change.
MULROY: That's right. And it isn't very clear what the goal is, and perhaps that's one of the things the president could do, is address this issue to the American people. But of course, there's always been a concern, and I think it's probably the most highest priority is Iran's nuclear program. They have enriched uranium up to 60%. There's no need for that for civilian purposes, and it could essentially be a very short period before they have enough enriched uranium at 90%, which is weapons grade, which is why there is so much attention on these nuclear facilities that, according to many public reporting, are getting rebuilt and reinforced.
RASCOE: But there was already that strike on Iran that President Trump carried out where he claimed that he had obliterated the nuclear program. So would another strike be more successful?
MULROY: Very good point. So saying it was obliterated kind of takes away from the need to do it again. I think clearly in the beginning, it was degraded, yes, for sure, but it wasn't completely eliminated, and there is concern that they have started to rebuild it. It might not be any more successful, but it does put them back. And if that's the plan, then this is very risky, of course, but that could happen again. We have the capacity to eliminate their air and missile defense so that our strategic bombers can take strikes on these facilities again. And of course, there's also the concern of the ballistic missiles, which are very much a threat to Israel and to our facilities where U.S. military is present in the region.
RASCOE: Do you think Trump will push for regime change?
MULROY: It's very difficult to see how air power alone could cause a regime change. But of course, we have seen a lot of the protests on the ground, which have been very substantial. So it's a potential - I still think very unlikely - that that could happen. But the question for the White House - hopefully being answered by the intelligence community - is what's likely to replace a regime that's changed? And that just might be the IRGC, which is the paramilitary military unit that essentially is more fervent than even the Supreme leader himself. So there's very much a concern that they could be the ones that take charge after a decapitation strike leading to a place where it's even more hostile to the U.S. interests and our partners in the region.
RASCOE: How might Iran react if the U.S. does launch strikes?
MULROY: So Iran has messaged very specifically that they intend to do much more than they did in response to the 12 day war in the attacks that the U.S. did on Fordow. So they're talking about potentially going directly after aircraft carriers. That is a very difficult task. There's extreme amounts of defense, as you would guess, for aircraft carriers, but it's not impossible, and that would escalate this substantially. They can also go after, of course, just like they did last time, bases in the regions like Al-Udeid and Qatar. Last time, it was essentially orchestrated. Every incoming missile was shot down. They could do it differently this time if their intent is to actually cause death and damage. That's why I think the U.S. is not only preparing to do the initial strikes if diplomacy fails, but also respond to any escalatory action by Iran, which, according to the Ayatollah on down, is what they intend to do.
RASCOE: That's Mick Mulroy, formerly of the Defense Department and now a distinguished military fellow for the Middle East Institute. Thank you so much for joining us.
MULROY: Thanks, Ayesha. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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