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Crowded Democratic field could give GOP an opening in California governor's race

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

California Governor Gavin Newsom knows he's widely considered a potential presidential candidate in 2028. Here's what he told NPR's Ailsa Chang this week when she asked why he thinks that is.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR CONTENT)

GAVIN NEWSOM: Just conviction. Just letting it go. It's putting it all out there, calling balls and strikes. And I'm going to run the 110-yard dash. I got a sell-by date as governor, and we'll see what happens.

MARTÍNEZ: You can see their entire interview on NPR's YouTube channel.

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Because Newsome is term-limited, though, something like a small army of Democrats is hoping to succeed him. But the party is worried that the state's unique primary system is leading to something unthinkable - a general election between two Republicans in the nation's largest blue state. Guy Marzorati from member station KQED has this report.

GUY MARZORATI, BYLINE: Democratic activists bustled around San Francisco's massive Moscone Center convention hall last week, campaign workers setting up booths and hanging banners for the California Democratic Party Convention. The three-day event was a premiere showcase for the Democrats vying to be the state's next governor.

BRIAN PARVIZSHAHI: Right now, we have a pretty crowded field with Democrats running to replace Gavin Newsom.

MARZORATI: Brian Parvizshahi, a California political consultant, ran through some of the top names.

PARVIZSHAHI: Eric Swalwell, who's a congressman out here in the Bay Area.

MARZORATI: There's Tom Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist.

PARVIZSHAHI: Matt Mahan, who's the mayor of San Jose.

MARZORATI: Xavier Becerra, the former attorney general. Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of LA.

PARVIZSHAHI: And Katie Porter, former Congresswoman.

MARZORATI: And that's just on the Democratic side. There's also two leading Republicans - commentator Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County. In California, Democrats and Republicans appear on the ballot together in the primary. The two candidates who receive the most votes move on to the general election. A poll this week from a think tank, the Public Policy Institute of California, found three Democrats - Porter, Swalwell and Steyer - in a virtual tie with Republicans Hilton and Bianco.

MARK BALDASSARE: No telling at this point who the top two candidates are going to be...

MARZORATI: That's Mark Baldassare, the survey's director.

BALDASSARE: ...And whether they're going to be Democrats or Republicans that are going to be running for governor in November.

MARZORATI: The fractured vote means that, yes, two Republicans could advance to the general election in California.

NANCY TUNG: You know, it's not a negligible concern.

MARZORATI: Nancy Tung is the chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party.

TUNG: Because, you know, the Republican vote is going to be split two ways versus a Democratic vote that could be split - I mean, we have nine major candidates. It could be split into pieces.

MARZORATI: The idea of electing a Republican governor, which California hasn't done in 20 years, is starting to worry Tung.

TUNG: If we don't have somebody in the top two, then that seems like a future that I don't want to acknowledge.

MARZORATI: But other Democrats are less concerned. State party Chair Rusty Hicks says candidates can take clear steps to stand out.

RUSTY HICKS: Those who are able to raise the resources to communicate a message, those who land significant endorsements and supporters.

MARZORATI: By the time voting begins in May...

HICKS: My guess is we're not going to have the same number of candidates truly competing for the support of California voters.

MARZORATI: But candidates can't wait that long to get their names off the ballot. The deadline for that is next month.

For NPR News, I'm Guy Marzorati in San Jose.

(SOUNDBITE OF BOOM BIP'S "ROADS MUST ROLL") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Guy Marzorati