An impactful winter storm affecting parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas is looking increasingly likely in the Friday and Saturday time frame.
First off, one detail that we have moderate confidence on at this point is that snow is the least likely precipitation type during the critical part of this event. The cold air will be quite shallow, leading to the potential for either freezing rain or sleet as a winter precipitation type. Which one of those types is dominant in a certain area will depend on the storm track.
In order to determine the precipitation types for this forecast, we used a 50/50 blend of the computer models above surface temperature structure. This yielded a large area of mostly freezing rain for a 24 to 48 hour period, with warning level accumulations. If ice accumulations of this nature occur, sustained winds in the 10 to 15 mph range, with higher gusts, would increase the potential for power outages.
The potential for more widespread frozen types arrives toward the end of the event as colder upper level air arrives with the upper low itself.
We cannot stress enough that this is our best guess given the available data for an event 6 to 7 days in advance. Changes to the area affected, amounts, and precipitation type transitions will occur over the next several days, and subsequent forecasts should be monitored.