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Forecasters Predict US Oil Production Growth Slows, Coronavirus Cuts into Global Demand in 2020

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Experts forecast a slowdown in U.S. oil production growth this year.

Oil and Gas Journal Managing Editor for Economics Conglin Xu expects crude oil production growth to drop from 11.5% in 2019 to 6.2% this year, peaking at 13 million barrels per day.

"That’s because of the lower commodity prices, declining drilling rigs count, drilling activity and also the peaking of well productivity," Xu said.

Total production, which includes natural gas liquids, of 17.1 million barrels per day last year was an 11.5% increase from 2018. Xu forecasts total U.S. oil production topping out at 18.3 million barrels this year, a 6.3% increase from 2019.

Xu said the number of rigs in all major U.S. oil plays is down, but those in operation are much more efficient.

"Production per rig is still increasing in all these regions, which supports the continuous production growth of all these regions," Xu said.

And the coronavirus could hurt Oklahoma’s main industry. With more than 17,000 confirmed cases, there are fears the outbreak will deal a blow to China’s already slowing economic growth. Xu said that will drag down growth in China’s demand for oil.

"The demand growth of China accounted for about 70% of the overall global oil demand growth. So, if China’s oil demand as hit hard by this crisis, then global oil demand growth will also have problems this year," Xu said.

The 2003 SARS outbreak led to a 1% reduction in China’s gross domestic product, and the coronavirus outbreak has already surpassed that in scale.

Matt Trotter joined KWGS as a reporter in 2013. Before coming to Public Radio Tulsa, he was the investigative producer at KJRH. His freelance work has appeared in the Los Angeles Times and on MSNBC and CNN.