Stormy Weather Period Ahead

Surface high pressure extending from the Great Lakes into Texas
this morning will gradually slide east through tonight. Another
warm afternoon with some increase in south wind expected as upper
low currently in the Great Basin area moves northeast toward the
plains. Winds will respond to this on Sunday with gusts of 30-35
mph possible across northeast OK, but should fall a bit short of
advisory criteria as lowest sfc pressures become focused more
across northern plains. Potential for at least isolated strong to
severe storms to develop along dry line as far south as northwest
OK late Sunday afternoon, which could move across far northeast
OK Sunday night.

This system will continue lifting northeast Monday while a potent
upper low organizes to our west. Shortwave ridging in between
these two systems should provide a strong cap Monday, though a
weak boundary may be in place to provide enough convergence for
isolated storm potential Monday. Low level moisture will continue
to surge north Monday night into Tuesday with some increase in
elevated convection possible.

Upper level low will approach the region Tuesday late in the day
with the dry line established to our west. 00z models have shown
a bit of a trend in focusing this farther to the west, but the
bottom line is that a highly unstable and sheared environment will
exist east of the dry line Tuesday with potential for significant
severe weather Tuesday Tuesday evening in eastern OK and
potentially into northwest AR overnight. Forecasts for this
period should be monitored closely.