After nearly three years of organizing, campaigning and fighting legal battles, the time has come for Oklahomans to cast their ballots on State Question 832, which will appear in the June 16 election.
If passed, the question will bring Oklahoma's minimum wage up to $12 an hour at the beginning of 2027. It would then increase by $1.50 each year, hitting $15 an hour in 2029. Starting in 2030, it would increase with the cost of living, using the U.S. Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to determine the amount.
The question also removes some previous exemptions to the minimum wage, like agricultural workers and certain workers under 18.
The history of the question
Oklahoma's minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour — the same as the federal minimum wage. This last increased in 2009, although there have been more recent attempts to raise it further.
State organizers in favor of raising the minimum wage began working on a proposition in the fall of 2023. It was originally designed for a 2024 vote, with the first increase coming in 2025 to $9. Then, it would increase by $1.50 each year until hitting $15 in 2029, and be tied to the CPI-W starting in 2030.
As a citizen petition initiative, the question needed voter signatures to get on the ballot. But before organizers could begin that process, they faced a legal challenge from the State Chamber and the Oklahoma Farm Bureau Legal Foundation. The groups argued that the petition unconstitutionally turned state legislative power over to federal entities. Oklahoma's highest court, however, disagreed with their argument and allowed the petition to move forward.
Organizers spent 90 days in the summer of 2024 gathering signatures in support of their initiative. The Oklahoma Secretary of State's office verified just over 157,000 of them, about 65,000 more than was needed to get on the ballot.
Following verification, the ball was in Gov. Kevin Stitt's court to decide when the question would hit ballots. He selected June 2026, nearly two years after the signatures were confirmed. Stitt said the move was a cost-saving measure, as he wanted to avoid paying nearly $2 million for a statewide special election. Advocates, however, pointed out that Stitt had previously called a special election in March 2023 for a state question on legalizing recreational marijuana.
As Stitt's chosen date now approaches, organizers on both sides of the cause have worked to get their messaging out to voters.
Adam Maxey, the Vice President of Government Affairs at the State Chamber, said the question rushes the process of local businesses figuring out how to navigate increased labor costs.
"For a business owner, that's one quarter to figure out what those overhead costs are going to be," Maxey said. "Nobody wants to find out they're losing hours, or even their job, around Christmas."
The State Chamber, which calls itself an "advocate for business," has been opposing State Question 832 since its inception. The biggest cause for concern, Maxey said, is the tie to the CPI-W. The team at the Chamber fears that indefinitely raising the minimum wage in tandem with a national index, which includes data from more expensive areas than Oklahoma, will make it harder to build a business.
"To do so would create an environment where that uncertainty from the index may mean less entrepreneurship. It may mean less people being willing to take the risk," Maxey said.
But for 832 organizers, the CPI-W link is crucial.
"Tying the wage increase after it hits $15 an hour to the cost of living is important because we shouldn't have to wait this long ever again to see the minimum wage increase," said Amber England, a spokesperson for Raise the Wage Oklahoma. "It's been the longest time in the history of the minimum wage that there's not been an increase."
The CPI-W is the same index used to adjust Social Security payments each year.
England said the increase will also bring greater spending power to low-income households, which they will use in their local economies.
"When rural workers have more money in their pocket, they're going to spend it in the towns they live," England said. "I grew up in a small town in southern Oklahoma, and I know that the community I lived in could have benefited from my mom, who was a low-wage worker, having more money in her pocket."
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), an agency that provides economic research to federal lawmakers, estimates that if the federal minimum wage were raised to $15 by 2029, families that make 2.99 times the poverty threshold or less would see an overall increase to their income. However, the total real family income across the country would decrease, driven by losses among families earning six times the poverty threshold or more.
Who would be affected by the proposition?
The share of workers who make the federal minimum wage has been declining, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimating that about 17,000 people in Oklahoma earned the minimum wage or less in 2024. But the agency also reports that 33.1% of Oklahoma jobs pay less than $15 an hour.
Workers in those roles include people like Yossi Toney. On a typical weekday, Toney wakes up before sunrise to head to her morning bus route, snaking through Norman neighborhoods to pick up kids and drop them off at school. Then, she has some free time during the day, which she often uses to put in hours at a friend's gas station. The afternoon is spent bringing kids home from school.
Toney's job as a bus driver pays more than $15 an hour, but only guarantees 30 hours a week during the school year. When school is out, she tries to add on summer school and library bus routes. Throughout the academic year, there are sometimes opportunities to add more hours by signing up for field trips and other excursions, but Toney also uses her job at the gas station, which pays $11.25 an hour, to supplement her income.
Affording the necessities of life has felt like a stretch for Toney. Following a divorce, she moved back in with her mom, and the two split rent. Being able to share that burden was key when she was diagnosed with cancer. She's since been deemed cancer-free, but still faces medical bills.
Toney has been working as a bus driver in Norman for nine years. She enjoys spending time with the kids, hearing about their school days. But part of the reason she stays is due to her health insurance, which helped her shoulder the bills of cancer care and allows her to manage her diabetes treatment. Because of the benefits, she doesn't believe leaving her job for another that pays more is the right answer for her financial challenges.
"I don't understand when people say, 'Go get another job,' like I get it, but somebody has to do this job. If we weren't there to do it, then who's going to do it?" Toney said.
Toney acknowledges that raising the minimum wage may create challenges for small business owners, like her friends who own the gas station. But she said she and other workers in similar positions often face stress that shouldn't be overlooked.
"It's also hard for people that work these jobs that don't get paid very much, for them to be able to live life comfortably and pay their bills without stress in every month," Toney said. "I think that it's very important for us to live a comfortable life in whatever we decide to do."
Frank Arnold, the owner of Arnold's Old Fashioned Hamburgers in Tulsa, is also feeling economic pressure. Over the past five years, inflation has forced him to charge $2 more per burger that the establishment serves. He sells about 1,400 fewer per week.
In Arnold's view, a minimum wage increase isn't necessary because of the limited number of jobs that are still paying minimum wage; in other words, he believes the market has corrected itself. At his restaurant, regular employees start off making $14-$15 an hour, and part-timers like high school students start around $12.
If the minimum wage increases, Arnold fears even employees making above $15 an hour will expect a raise. He might also face higher prices from suppliers who raise their employees' pay. In order to accommodate, he'll have to tack on further increases to burger prices — maybe another $0.50 — on top of what's already been added due to inflation.
"We have to pass that cost on to stay in business. And it's that simple," Arnold said. "It's no magic wand or anything."
Arnold stresses that he does what he can for his employees. If he sees a worker who is doing well, he'll make note of it so he can offer a raise. He's provided pay advances to staffers who find themselves in a tight spot.
"Most of them have been there five years or more. And they stay because I take care of them, and I pay them as good as I can," Arnold said. "And considering what their job is, you can't pay somebody $25 an hour to make a burger."
What does the research say the effects will be?
When it comes to minimum wage increases, many factors are at play, and even economists disagree about whether they're effective.
David Neumark, a professor of economics at the University of California, Irvine, is against the increase. In his view, minimum wage policies are fundamentally about redistribution to those living in poverty, and increasing the minimum wage doesn't accomplish that goal.
"I'm one who thinks the government should do redistribution, and we should worry about low-wage work. We should worry more about low income families," Neumark said. "But this isn't a good way to do it."
Research from the CBO estimates that, if the federal minimum wage were raised to $15 an hour by 2029 and tied to the CPI-W thereafter, about 250,000 people across the country would be lifted above the poverty line by 2033. In 2023, about 36.8 million Americans lived in poverty. That equates to about two-thirds of one percent of people living in poverty seeing a change.
Instead, Neumark believes in using the Earned Income Tax Credit, or EITC, to assist those in need. This credit provides relief specifically to low-income families. Neumark said the EITC is a stronger link to people below the poverty line than wage, as teens and young adults from middle and upper-class families take up a portion of low-income jobs, while many people in poverty may not have work at all.
In 2015, the EITC and Child Tax Credit helped lift 9.2 million people out of poverty, including 48 million children.
Individual states also have the opportunity to expand this credit with their own dollars. In Oklahoma, qualifying EITC taxpayers can receive a state refund equal to 5% of their federal credit. But in other states, that number is as high as 125%.
Increasing the minimum wage also leads to some job loss, Neumark said. The CBO estimates that, if the federal minimum wage were increased to $15 an hour by 2029, the country would lose about 300,000 jobs by 2033. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there are about 162.6 million employed workers as of April 2026.
Ben Zipperer, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, sees the job loss impacts as minimal opposed to the potential gains to be had from a minimum wage hike. Employers are largely able to avoid workforce reductions, he said, because minimum wage increases bring greater employee retention. He also cites research that minimum wage increases can help reduce criminal recidivism.
Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston finds minimum wage increases are connected to positive results for low-income households, like decreased overall debt, increased auto loans and greater credit access. The same study also indicates that there are some price increases as a result, especially for products in sectors dependent on low-wage workers, like fast food. A ten percent increase in minimum wage may lead to a 0.5% increase in price of food away from home, for example.
"It is correct that one way that businesses accommodate higher wage increases is by raising prices. It just turns out empirically that price increase is very small relative to the actual wage increase," Zipperer said.
Zipperer argues these increases don't necessarily keep customers out of businesses. Unlike when a company raises prices independently, competitors in the same industry are all facing the minimum wage hike, meaning one company doesn't suddenly become less attractive to customers than another. Also, people are just willing to pay more to help low-wage employees, Zipperer said.
"Customers are very willing and much less sensitive to price increases when they understand that the price increase is there to actually help workers make ends meet," Zipperer said.
Next steps
The official election for SQ 832 is June 16, but voters can cast ballots early from June 11-13. If you're not registered to vote, the deadline is May 22. All Oklahoma voters, regardless of party affiliation or county, are eligible to decide on the proposition.
For more information and to see a sample ballot, check out the Oklahoma Voter Portal.