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They're leaving Congress with nothing to lose, spelling potential trouble for Trump

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, departs a meeting with Senate Republicans at the Capitol on June 4, 2026.
Kent Nishimura
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AFP via Getty Images
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, departs a meeting with Senate Republicans at the Capitol on June 4, 2026.

Texas Senator John Cornyn has never had the hearts of many of his party's most energized voters. He heard the boos in the earliest days of the Tea Party movement at a 2009 Austin rally outside the state Capitol.

They've continued through the Trump presidency. The mere mention of his name drew jeers this past March at the annual gathering of the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas.

The four-term conservative lost his re-election bid last month after President Trump endorsed the state's attorney general, MAGA loyalist Ken Paxton, in the GOP primary. The defeat made Cornyn the first incumbent senator from Texas to lose to a primary challenger since 1970.

Now, Cornyn is on a mission to have the last word on behalf of the establishment wing he represents.

"The jury's still out whether this MAGA populist movement can survive the midterms," he says.

Although he rejects the label, many political observers now see Cornyn as the newest "YOLO" Republican in Congress, short for "you only live once." It's a group that includes Louisiana's Bill Cassidy and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Each is on their way out of Congress as part of a MAGA-fueled exodus — one that has fueled questions about how they might use their remaining leverage to potentially upend the Trump agenda.

Tillis announced in June last year he would not seek reelection after Trump threatened to support a primary challenger. He has grown noticeably more outspoken against the administration ever since.

"A lot of members probably underestimate just how much any one member can have a tremendous amount of leverage — if they want to exert it," Tillis told NPR.

With roughly six months left in office, the trio could complicate Trump's agenda in several areas — nominations are one.

Tillis held up Trump's pick for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, until the Justice Department agreed to drop a probe into former chair Jerome Powell.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., heads to the Senate chamber following a closed-door meeting with fellow Republicans, at the Capitol on June 2, 2026.
J. Scott Applewhite / AP
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AP
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., heads to the Senate chamber following a closed-door meeting with fellow Republicans, at the Capitol on June 2, 2026.

Tillis is now voicing concern about Trump's Attorney General nominee Todd Blanche — as are Cassidy and Cornyn. They want assurances that Jan. 6 rioters won't be rewarded by Trump's so-called "anti-weaponization" fund.

"By the time the confirmation vote occurs, that payout pot for punks needs to be put away," Tillis told reporters this week.

The Justice Department says the fund isn't moving forward. But the trio has sought more concrete assurances, such as a way to codify the plan in law.

They're also questioning a framework agreement to end the Iran war, and could have a bigger say if the Trump administration and Tehran reach a final deal that eventually comes before Congress.

Optimism despite past failures

Other Republicans who've drawn Trump's ire have tried to change dynamics inside the party before. They've mostly failed.

But Cassidy — who lost his Louisiana seat in a primary against a Trump-endorsed candidate in May — believes they can succeed where others haven't.

He points to a new bipartisan plan to address the housing crisis that is moving through Congress and could soon be on Trump's desk.

Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., with his wife Dr. Laura Cassidy by his side, addresses supporters as he concedes his primary election contest during an event on May 16, 2026 in Baton Rouge, La.
Michael DeMocker / Getty Images
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Getty Images
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., with his wife Dr. Laura Cassidy by his side, addresses supporters as he concedes his primary election contest during an event on May 16, 2026 in Baton Rouge, La.

"Some of this will continue after I leave," Cassidy says. "It's not just what I've accomplished, but the intellectual ground work I've put out there for what I think to be rational policy that works for the future of our country."

Still, some critics have accused the trio of doing too little, too late.

Former Arizona GOP Senator Jeff Flake disagrees.

"Part of the reason they're in the position they're in, is they were putting up some of those guardrails before. But now, there's every motivation to do that," he said in an interview. "They know what the country needs and in many cases it's not what the president wants."

Flake has been in their shoes. In 2017, he announced he'd retire after his own tussles with Trump.

He argues their work is part of a larger fight to return the party back to its traditional roots. And he warns Republicans could be on track for a shellacking in the midterms

"Nothing focuses the mind like a big election loss," he said.

As Trump faces falling poll numbers, many voters are blaming him for economic woes like higher gas prices. In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, Trump's approval rating fell to a record low of 36%, with only a third of Americans saying they approve of his handling of the economy.

They are the kind of numbers that give many Republican operatives heartburn, as Democrats look to expand the map in hopes of winning back control of Congress in this fall's midterm elections.

It also means MAGA will need more donor help to hold onto what are typically safe Republican seats in places like Texas. Paxton's race against Democratic state Sen. James Talarico is on track to be one of the most expensive Senate races in history.

That's where Cornyn's absence could be felt most. Cornyn says his primary loss marked his "liberation day" — meaning he can focus on what he loves and end his days as a prolific fundraiser for Republicans

"I can focus on the Senate and not worry about the things that I like least," he says.

Cornyn says there are plenty of warning signs that Republicans' majority in Congress is in jeopardy.

And like Flake, he argues that will force a reckoning for MAGA. It's a big bet for establishment Republicans, who will let voters have the last say on where the party heads next.

"The poll numbers that I'm seeing are not very encouraging," Cornyn said. "And I don't see things changing a lot between now and November."

Copyright 2026 NPR

Claudia Grisales
Claudia Grisales is a congressional reporter assigned to NPR's Washington Desk.