TRANSCRIPT
LOGAN LAYDEN: President Trump is coming to Oklahoma today — the reddest of red states — I believe he's headed to Alabama next. He was in Tennessee the other day. These are thought of as safe areas for Republicans. What does this strategy tell you about the state of the midterms overall?
ALLYSON SHORTLE: Typically when we see a partisan candidate — or a Republican official — going into their own territory, more or less, we know elections are won on mobilization. So this essentially means that they're trying to garner some enthusiasm from the base, which is crucial in an election. Sometimes we like to think that it's all about trying to change peoples' minds and get people who might be considered swing voters. But realistically, most elections are won by generating support from the base to turnout on election day. Elections are lost when your own partisans do not show up to vote for you. So this is a good strategy for anybody to go out to their safest districts, make sure that people are enthusiastic enough to come out and vote for those Republican candidates on election day.
LAYDEN: How safe are these Oklahoma races? From what you're seeing, is the Oklahoma race for governor, Stephanie Bice's seat in the 5th Congressional District, are these in serious play?
SHORTLE: I'm not sure I would say they're in serious play. I think CD5, yeah, that is an election you can look at a little more closely in terms of the possibility for a Democrat to do well in that particular district. But most places, and in particular the places that Trump's going to, are solidly red. These are places that already went for Mazzei — specifically Durant, where he's holding the rally — where he won by large margins. And also Mazzei, the gubernatorial candidate for the Republican Party in the state, won very decidedly over Drummond in Bryan County, where Durant is located. And certainly Durant itself, they went for Mazzei. So for Trump to accompany Mazzei there, that's very friendly territory, and there's really no shot of a Democrat winning out of those particular precincts or counties.
LAYDEN: The choice of Durant as the location for this visit is interesting. It's right across the Texas border. Big Senate race in Texas. Is he trying to kill two birds with one stone here? Bolster Oklahoma candidates and impact that Texas race?
SHORTLE: That's certainly what Republican strategists are claiming. They're saying this is a case of being able to go to a place like Durant that shares a designated media area, or designated media market, with Texas. So they are part of the Sherman-Ada designated media area, and that services mainly Oklahoma counties. So I think there's 12 counties that are covered by that media market. One of those is in Texas. Although it's very odd — it's an odd choice if that's the motivation, given that that media market is largely Oklahoma already. So if that is the strategy, it's a very indirect strategy indeed.
LAYDEN: We know Donald Trump loves gold. And he's had the Midas touch when it comes to endorsing his preferred candidates. Is that changing? Does an appearance or endorsement from President Trump still help Republicans?
SHORTLE: I do think in Oklahoma Trump is still much more popular than nationwide. But what we're seeing nationally is that Trump's endorsement is not carrying as much weight as it used to. We know that Trump is wildly unpopular right now because of the war in Iran, prices are still going up and inflation is very terrible, and the perception of the economy is very weak. And all of these factors are affecting Trump's ability to really claim that he has made the country great, as promised. So while there are still tried and true Trump supporters in the state, and they absolutely are likely to react positively to endorsement, and to turn out to vote on election day, we can see that base being chipped away at, which makes his appearance in Oklahoma that much more important for this election, and that much more revealing that the Republican base is in trouble right now.
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